JoeTaxpayer

A couple weeks back in a post titled Money Merge Hyperbole, I discussed the Money Merge product offered by UFF, and focused on the fact that in their published example, it’s clear that the use of a HELOC doesn’t provide any incremental savings. A kind reader points out on his web site, My Debt Elimination Calculator, that HELOC can provide some savings depending on a number of factors. Among them, the time of the month that income comes in, when bills are due, and the relative differences in HELOC interest rate, mortgage rate, and checking account interest. I agree with this. I’m from the “numbers don’t lie” camp and Greg offers numbers to back up his comments on that post. In his examples, the HELOC system saves $2550 more than the prepaying method on a $100K mortgage. (This is for the more realistic example where the borrower doesn’t have the (unrealistic) extra $1000/mo, but a more reasonable amount which will reduce the mortgage to 24 years from 30. In this case, Greg’s software is capturing over $100/yr in extra savings by using the HELOC. I certainly can’t knock a system that beats what I saw on official MMA sites but only costs $30. Take a look through the link above.
One point I must concede is this: It’s easier to make a purchase (waste money) when it’s from cash in the bank than when you are taking that money as a HELOC withdrawal. Maybe that’s what the MMA people are trying to say, but that message is lost to me among all the hyperbole.

I will close with this question and thought. If UFF, with the chance to put their product in the best light, cannot provide an example with real numbers which shows any savings beyond that of the prepaying (which I can illustrate with a free spreadsheet) yet create this illusion of ’sophisticated algorithms’ taking millions of dollars to develop, how do they justify a $3500 price tag? On the flip side, you have been introduced to Greg, (whom I just met via my blog) a Computer Scientist who was able to write code providing a solution that actually impressed me looking at his example. I’m sure this debate isn’t over.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: debt elimination calculator, free spreadsheet, HELOC, interest, jferheart, mma, money, Mortgage, Savings, sophisticated algorithms, spreadsheet, UFF

I recently read a post “Why I love Roth IRAs” in which the author ignores much of the math going in and coming out. Now, I love Roths myself, but only when used to take most advantage of the tax rates involved. Let me explain. From my feature article earlier this year titled “Can you save too much, pre-tax?” we see that a couple with $447,500 in their 401(k) or Traditional, Pre-Tax IRA, can take withdrawals and remain in the 0% bracket. This is due to the combination of standard deductions and exemptions. The next $401,250 will support withdrawals at the 10% rate.
If you have a defined benefit pension (a traditional pension) the numbers certainly will shift, and you need to take this income into account. Pensions are getting more scarce and those who frequently changed jobs are likely to have never vested into any one plan.
So, now I’ll ask, what percent of retirees are likely to have saved this sum, a total $848,750 from the numbers above? I cite an article from AARP titled 2004-05 Boomers which offers a forecast. One chart in this report offers that for those born in 1956-65, their mean (this means average, important distinction from median, middle) wealth is forecast to be $839K. But reading on, we find that after subtracting non-retirement wealth and present value of Social Security benefits, we are looking at a retirement account balance of just $140K. It turns out the 4th quintile (this is the second 20% from the top) is forecast to have $906K, this scales to about $151K in retirement accounts. Even the top quintile (top 20%) will average $2028K total wealth, with maybe $350K-$400K in retirement accounts. So it’s only the upper portion of that group (in addition to those with fat traditional pensions) that need to consider the Roth while working. For the rest of us, we will likely be in the 10% or if fortunate, the 15% bracket upon retiring.
I’ll close with this thought - each family has their own set of numbers. This is why if you write in to a web site or magazine and ask “Is Roth good for me?”, it’s impossible to answer without knowing many details. We know more the closer you are to retirement, but only have a series of clues the further away you are. Another blog “The Finance Buff” offers a view similar to mine. I remain surprised at how many wave the Roth flag without some level of analysis. For those who have access to a Roth 401(k) and Roth IRA, it would be a shame to load those up and find that they missed out on the tax savings that pretax savings could have provided.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: 401(k), Finance, income, IRA, Retirement, retirement account, roth ira, saving, Savings, Social Security, tax, tax rates, traditional pension, wealth

If this past April 15, you found yourself on the receiving side, getting a refund on your taxes, consider adjusting your withholdings. The IRS web site has an online calculator which will help you determine the correct number of exemptions to claim on your W4 submitted to your employer. If you were using your tax withholdings as a vacation fund, why not consider having a fixed amount saved from each paycheck and moved to a savings account? At least if you need these funds during the year, they will be available. Otherwise you are lending Uncle Sam money and not getting any interest.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: interest, irs, money, Savings, tax withholdings, Taxes, w4

Back in September, I wrote an article titled “All That Glitters“, and expressed my thoughts on gold as an investment. Recently, I’ve seen more charts that compare the price of oil and gold by forming a ratio, the number of barrels of oil that an ounce of gold will buy. First, on CNBC’s Kudlow and Company, and more recently in an Economist article borrowing my September story’s title. From that article, I offer this chart:

What conclusion do we draw from this chart? Gold priced too low? Oil too high? I believe both are in bubble territory, each for its own reason. Only time will tell who is the right prognosticator.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: Finance, gold, money, oil, Savings

There is a ‘rule of thumb’ out there that one should save 3-6 months salary (net, I assume) and from the near 16,000 Google returns on “emergency fund” “rule of thumb”, it would seem this is a hot topic among financial concerns. At Master Your Card, Kristy on Monday discussed the importance of the emergency fund, and while I agree with her that you shouldn’t put those funds into stocks, which may or may not be down at the very time you need the funds, I am concerned about the priority most attribute to the fund.

You see, most financial rules, are just that, generalizations that may apply to many/most of the readers of such advice. It’s easy, however, to offer examples where the rule(s) need some modification once the rest of the situation is understood.

For emergency funds, first, does your company have, and do they provide any matching contributions, to a 401(k)? If so, this is my highest priority. Some companies match as much as the first 6% of an employees’ salary deposited into their 401(k). On $50,000/yr, that’s $3,000 the company will match against your $3,000 deposit. In the 25% tax bracket, your net cost is only $2,250. Let me spell this out carefully - you are out of pocket $2,250, but now have $6000 in your 401(k)! Do you see why this is my top priority? Should you fund an emergency fund first, or take $2,250 and turn it into $6,000? If you lost your job, and had to take it out next year, you will likely drop to the 15% bracket, and after the 10% penalty for withdrawal, you still take out $4500. A side benefit, also subject to dispute, is that with $6,000 in the 401(k), you now have the ability to borrow $3000 back out, at 7-8%, and use that loan to knock down the high interest credit card debt. Yes, there are those who advise against the 401(k) loan, but in this scenario, it can be part of a kick start to both your retirement savings and debt reduction plan.

From a completely different perspective is an article on MSN titled “The $0 emergency fund“. I think that may be taking it a bit too far.
Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: 401(k), 401(k) loan, emergency fund, Retirement, Savings

Earlier this week, I talked a bit about the Social Security replacement rate, how much a single person could expect to receive at their normal retirement age. As we discuss trying to make up the difference to enjoy a post retirement income which replaces working income by close to 80% we run into the Social Security tax trap, the fact that for a single person, when half your benefit plus other taxable income exceeds $25,000, the benefits become taxable. So I updated the table a bit.

Now we can see the amount of (taxable) income we can have before we hit the range where SS benefits are taxable. We also can see the amount of money needed to generate that income (using the 4% withdrawal rate we’ve discussed in the past). Note: The column “$25K-1/2 Benefit” is increased by $8950, the sum of the standard deduction and exemption for a single person. Of course if you have high enough deductions to file schedule A this will increase further. So, getting back to the discussion of pretax and post tax savings, we are closing in on the gross numbers you can save, pretax, with little risk of either hitting a higher tax bracket at retirement or running into the range where Social Security benefits are taxable. In the next few weeks, I will offer more analysis, along with observation on this scenario for couples.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: Finance, Investing, money, Retirement, Savings, Social Security

The book “Last Chance Millionaire” by Douglas R. Andrew was interesting to me, if only for the lack of depth. It reminded me of the original “Twilight Zone” TV series in this regard - every episode could be summarized in about three sentences or one minute of action, and the remaining 24 minutes was filler.

Mr. Andrew spends the first 200 or so pages making the case that one should always have a mortgage, and it should be as large as possible. Now there’s a premise I’d not want to spend too much time debating, but I’d agree that there are better times to borrow and other times to pay down one’s debt. I am old enough to remember a 30 year fixed rate of 13.5% which, in the 25% bracket is still 10-1/8% after tax. At that rate, I prefer to pay down the mortgage and advise other to follow. With rates below 6%, someone in the 28% bracket has an after tax interest cost of 4.32%. There, I just saved you 200 pages.

He goes on to suggest investing in Indexed Universal Life Insurance. I am on record as being anti-variable annuities, but this product offers a few different twists. The withdrawals are first made against the principal within the account, so no taxes are due. Then with a bit of smoke and maybe a mirror or two, further withdrawals are taken as ‘loans’ against the account, which are then paid back on death.

I wanted to find out how the account grows in value and discovered a policy by Pacific Life called “Pacific indexed Accumulator II” which describes the annual crediting. One receives the return of the S&P index (no dividends) with a maximum of 12%, and minimum 0%. So the trade-off appears to be that you give up the dividend (The S&P currently yields about 2.1%) as well as accept a cap of 12% per year, in exchange for a guarantee of no annual losses. I’m still on the fence about borrowing to fund this, but the concept itself has a certain appeal. This chart from the prospectus does a good job illustrating the return you would have gotten over the past 20 years. I thank one of my regular readers for bringing this book and investment approach to my attention.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: douglas r. andrew, Finance, indexed universal life, Investing, last chance millionaire, money, Retirement, Savings

If you have never heard of this, it’s an ETF (exchange traded fund) which trades like a stock, and is comprised of the 100 highest dividend yielding US based stocks. There are further requirements such as the company must have had positive dividend per share growth in each of the past five years. Also, the company cannot pay out more than 60% of its earnings as dividends. With these details behind us, this ETF now (as of 3/31) yields 4.29%. This is a dividend, which is taxed at either 0% (if you are in the 10 or 15% bracket) or 15% (if you are in a higher bracket). Given the current, near 1% yield, on T-bills, and just above 3% yield on CDs (fully taxable at your marginal rate) the DVY offers an interesting alternative.

If you are considering a purchase, keep in mind, this is a stock index, you may lose part of your investment. But if you have a long term view, I think you’ll find that in the next 5-10 years, you will gain a modest return, in addition to the dividend income, and if you choose to reinvest, you will benefit from the increase in shares, as well as the higher dividends as the market recovers. I am not a stock picker, and not a short term trader. When I put some funds in DVY over the last 6 months, it was with the intention to stay invested for the next ten years.

(At the close on 4/21 DVY traded at $59.17 - close on 8/11 $54.43 (.63 dividend distributed since 4/21), I will update this each month)

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: dividends, etf, Finance, Investing, Savings

The full quote, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics” has been attributed to Mark Twain, and it continues to ring true for me. Last week, I quoted a CNNMoney article which stated, “The national median price drop of 5.8%, to $206,200 from $219,300, was the steepest ever recorded by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which has been compiling the report since 1979.” Now, I cannot dispute the facts. This statement is likely true, but what is the definition of median? Median simply means the middle number, half are higher, half lower. So far so good? But these numbers only represent transactions, not changes in existing values. Without digging deep into the data, one cannot understand the cause of such a drop. A large turnover in the lower end of the market will skew the data to reflect those sales. It’s possible (though not likely) that homes in a given area increased in value, but a combination of people in the higher priced homes simply moving at a below average rate combined with high transactions in the lower end results in median transaction values dropping.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: Finance, money, Mortgage, Real Estate, Savings, Subprime

For my first post of this year I wrote an article titled, “Can you save too much, pre-tax?” This is a topic that comes up frequently as one decides whether to choose a Traditional (pre-tax) IRA vs a Roth IRA. I recently had some dialog with another blogger and it’s clear to me that the decision is not so clear cut. Ideally, one makes a deposit pre-tax and withdraws it at a lower rate some time later. But as Mark (the other blogger) reminds me, a Roth has many benefits that shouldn’t be ignored:

1. You can withdraw the original deposits at any time with no tax or penalty, as I suggested in my Roth magic post.
2. A Roth has no RMDs (required minimum distribution) requirement, which forces withdrawals when they may not be needed or wanted due to other considerations.
3. The accounts pass through one’s estate with less impact to estate tax as the funds are denser, and received by the beneficiary with no income tax upon withdrawal.

I think for any retiree there is likely an ideal mix, so they might draw funds from their pre-tax accounts (IRA and 401(k)) and use Roth withdrawals to avoid getting sent into the next bracket or be subject to the Social Security Tax Trap. The issue today is that we can’t know that mix two or three years out, let alone 20 or 30. What I do know, and I hope Mark agrees, is that this decision follows the shape of the Laffer Curve. I know with certainty that 100% of one’s savings in pre-tax accounts misses the benefits I share above. 100% in Roth accounts will miss the benefit of the zero bracket I discussed at length in my article cited and linked above. I don’t know the ideal mix, but I’d suggest this: The lower your savings rate, the more you’ll see the benefit of pre-tax savings, a diligent saver may be best served by leaning toward the Roth savings. A Wall Street Journal article titled “A Cool Million No Longer Buys You a Luxe Retirement” helps back up my position as it states that only the richest 2% of Americans have saved more than $1 million. One would need to be in this exclusive group to even begin worrying about higher taxes on the their retirement savings. I hope to get some feedback, as others’ opinions always help me to see a different side of the issue.

Joe

(update - are you feeling lucky? The Google search for “pretax vs post tax ira” (leave off the quotes) will lead right to this post. Could just be the choice of words? Or maybe I’m just lucky?)

written by JOE \\ tags: 401(k), Finance, marginal tax rate, money, Retirement, roth conversion, roth ira, Savings, Social Security, Taxes