The talk of deflation, a general decrease in prices, is now becoming more common. Wasn’t it just a few months back that we were worrying about inflation and its cousin stagflation? But, I think the new fears are a bit unfounded. Inflation is not simply defined as ‘rising prices’ but as ‘too many dollars chasing too few goods.’ In the case of deflation, it’s just the opposite, too little demand, and not enough cash to buy the goods offered. I think the mini-bubble we saw in gas prices rippled through the economy and added cost to everything, from food, to any goods tat contained a transportation component in their cost. Now that oil has dropped to a somewhat more reasonable level, gas following, that cost is being pulled out of all goods, thus the short term drop in both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). Deflation? I doubt it.
Joe
On Feb 13th I posted Unintended Consequences III and talked about the conflict between crops used for food vs biofuels.
I just found a New York Times article “A New, Global Oil Quandary: Costly Fuel Means Costly Calories” which discusses this topic and confirms my fears.
Joe
In September and October, I talked about unintended consequences. I can’t help but ponder the concept, and will continue to post those that strike me as more than a passing thought.
We, as a country, are trying to get away from the stranglehold the oil producing nations seem to have over us. The current $3/gallon price of gasoline is putting a dent in all of our budgets, and the search for alternative fuel is on. Now, I believe that once an ideal storage system (read that - a better battery) is created, we will all be better off as wind and solar energy will gain favor. But, meanwhile, I hear a demand growing for “home grown” fuel in the form of ethanol, created from corn (or other grain). This scares me. It’s not too tough to see that any large use of this piece of the food chain will have a ripple effect on the rest of the system. First the cost of all grains will rise due to the increase in demand. Then the cost of any grain-fed livestock will rise as well. We will have a solution that’s far worse than the original problem. I welcome any view to the contrary.
Here is the futures chart for corn, a scary picture to say the least.
JOE
