JoeTaxpayer

A regular reader of my blog kindly pointed me to an article in Smart Money titled “401(k) Debit Cards Can Put Retirement at Risk” in which we are introduced to a debit-card like product which taps your 401(k) instead of your checking account. Although I wrote back in May’s “401(k) Loan bad for your (financial) health?” that loans were not absolutely bad, it depended on many factors, I think that such easy access is the flip side of the coin, almost certainly a bad thing. There are times I walk the fine line between wanting ‘big brother’ to establish just enough regulations to protect people from their own irresponsibility and wanting no such laws at all, caveat emptor still applying. Here, I’ll make the distinction between a one-time 401(k) loan used to help with the purchase of a first home, bridge the gap of income for an unemployed spouse, or a refinance of credit card debt combined with a change in lifestyle. Of course, paying off the cards with the loan, then charging up the cards again is no better than using a 401(k) debit card in the first place.

As the post title suggests, my feeling on this product is that it gives the consumer just enough rope to hang themselves.
Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: 401(k) loan, Credit, credit card, Finance, income, money, Retirement

For those who have read my page of links to articles on the Subprime Meltdown, I’ve added one more - “The Government-Created Subprime Mortgage Meltdown” by Thomas J. DiLorenzo.

As the title implies, he holds the Government (not the treasury, nor the federal reserve, but the government itself) responsible and he cites the 1977 Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) as the genesis of our current mess. As always, any other suggestion, please add a comment.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: federal reserve, Finance, investment, Mortgage, Subprime, subprime meltdown

I first wrote of this phenomenon last September in a post titled “Disappointing Returns“. In that post I cited data that reported that for the 20 years ended Dec. 31, 2006, the average stock fund investor earned a paltry 4.3 average annual compounded return compared to 11.8 percent for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. Wow, that’s abysmal. These investors would have fared better by staying in CDs during that time. Last month (the June issue) in Smart Money magazine, I found this telling graph;

What we find is that investors don’t buy and hold. Not by a long shot. They pour money in just at the market is reaching a top, and then, just as the market reaches a short term low, they panic, and sell their funds. Thus the title of my post today.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: Finance, Investing, smart money magazine, stock fund, stocks

I continue to be amused by the debate over whether the ‘Debt Snowball‘ that Dave Ramsey suggests is the best method for fast debt reduction. I wrote about this some time ago on my Feature Web Site, and got quite a bit of email telling me how I ignored the emotional side. They quoted Dave Ramsey, “personal finance is 20% head knowledge, 80% behavior”.
Today I came across the web site “Consumerism Commentary”, which had a nice spin on paying the highest interest debts first (as I suggest), but calling this method “The Debt Avalanche“. Sounds good to me. Nice article.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: dave ramsey, debt, debt snowball, Finance, interest, irs, Personal Finance

I recently read a post “Why I love Roth IRAs” in which the author ignores much of the math going in and coming out. Now, I love Roths myself, but only when used to take most advantage of the tax rates involved. Let me explain. From my feature article earlier this year titled “Can you save too much, pre-tax?” we see that a couple with $447,500 in their 401(k) or Traditional, Pre-Tax IRA, can take withdrawals and remain in the 0% bracket. This is due to the combination of standard deductions and exemptions. The next $401,250 will support withdrawals at the 10% rate.
If you have a defined benefit pension (a traditional pension) the numbers certainly will shift, and you need to take this income into account. Pensions are getting more scarce and those who frequently changed jobs are likely to have never vested into any one plan.
So, now I’ll ask, what percent of retirees are likely to have saved this sum, a total $848,750 from the numbers above? I cite an article from AARP titled 2004-05 Boomers which offers a forecast. One chart in this report offers that for those born in 1956-65, their mean (this means average, important distinction from median, middle) wealth is forecast to be $839K. But reading on, we find that after subtracting non-retirement wealth and present value of Social Security benefits, we are looking at a retirement account balance of just $140K. It turns out the 4th quintile (this is the second 20% from the top) is forecast to have $906K, this scales to about $151K in retirement accounts. Even the top quintile (top 20%) will average $2028K total wealth, with maybe $350K-$400K in retirement accounts. So it’s only the upper portion of that group (in addition to those with fat traditional pensions) that need to consider the Roth while working. For the rest of us, we will likely be in the 10% or if fortunate, the 15% bracket upon retiring.
I’ll close with this thought - each family has their own set of numbers. This is why if you write in to a web site or magazine and ask “Is Roth good for me?”, it’s impossible to answer without knowing many details. We know more the closer you are to retirement, but only have a series of clues the further away you are. Another blog “The Finance Buff” offers a view similar to mine. I remain surprised at how many wave the Roth flag without some level of analysis. For those who have access to a Roth 401(k) and Roth IRA, it would be a shame to load those up and find that they missed out on the tax savings that pretax savings could have provided.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: 401(k), Finance, income, IRA, Retirement, retirement account, roth ira, saving, Savings, Social Security, tax, tax rates, traditional pension, wealth

The New York Times offers an interactive page offering beautiful graphs of the change in home prices in different parts of the country.

Clicking on the image above will take you to the Times’ site where you can view the changes in the region you wish.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: Finance, Home, investment, money, Mortgage, new york times, Subprime

Consumer Reports recently offered an article titled “Your Debt; 8 Benchmarks For Borrowing“, which, for the most part, I liked and will consider adding to a List of Rules I’m assembling. Among the warning signs;

• 28% - Monthly Mortgage (including property tax and insurance) should not exceed this number. Really? That’s exactly what I suggested in my post Mortgage 101, so I’m in full agreement there.
• 80% - The first mortgage should not exceed this level. A lower debt to equity ratio is better. Interesting, I made the same comment in Mortgage 101, but that was more to benefit the bank, not the borrower. I’ll maintain that if the payments are still within the guidelines, there’s nothing magic about 80%.
• 6 - month’s worth of income as emergency money. I wrote about this as well, a couple weeks back in my controversial Emergency Funds post. This may be a worthy goal, and right for many, but not at the top of my list. I have been aggressive in retirement savings, well above average, managed the mortgage with serial refinancing to capture a low rate and an amortization that will end the mortgage well before retirement, and funded college in full for a child who is only 10, yet I’ve ignored this rule.

The CR article goes on with guidelines that are still worth reading if not following right to the letter.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: amortization, debt, emergency fund, Finance, income, Investing, Retirement, saving

There’s an attraction to the interactive sites suggesting you plug in your age, sex, etc, and see details related to your category peers. From CNN/Money I found;

Yes, I am 45-54. The site also offers median net worth based on your income. Click on the image to be taken to the site to see where you stand. Keep in mind, net worth figures generally include the value of one’s home and median is not the same as average. Median means half the population considered is higher, half lower.
Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: cnn money, Finance, Home, income, Investing, median, money, net worth, Retirement

I received enough email asking why I picked on Obama for what may have been a slip of the tongue regarding distribution of income gains. I think that our elected officials, whoever they are, need to speak with precision and when it comes to numbers, be close enough to exhibit an understanding of what they are discussing.

So, this past Tuesday, I hear Sen John Barrasso (WI) being interviewed by CNBC on the current gas price concerns. He offered that the average American uses 1500 gallons of gasoline each year. I’ll not split hairs to suggest that he meant the average driver, that was understood. But let’s think for a minute. 1500 gallons, even at 20 MPG (which is low, earlier, CNBC said the MPG was up to 30 MPG this year, which seemed high) that’s 30,000 miles per year. That just seemed wrong to me, so a few seconds with The Google and I found the Energy Kid’s Page, a site hosted by the department of energy. There, I found the number to be 500 gallons average with 12,000 miles driven by the average driver. This made a bit more sense to me, and this data was confirmed by the California Energy Commission, which states a US average of 464 gallons used per year. These numbers differ by less than 10%, but are far from the 1500 gallons the honorable Senator from Wisconsin stated.

The price of gas is high, painfully so. In any dialog about economics, it’s important to have your numbers right. Now, at work on Monday, I know that every dollar rise in gasoline impacts the average driver by $500 per year. I don’t aspire to the Cliff Clavin award, but I do want to know my facts before I quote them.

(I just found another beautiful New York Times graphic titled, “The Varying Impact of Gas Prices” illustrating the percent of one’s income going to gasoline purchases, across the country. Take a peek.)
Enjoy the weekend!

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: barack obama, distribution of income, economics, energy, Finance, gasoline, innumeracy, john barrasso, mpg, president

From an interview with Barack Obama aired on CNBC tonight;

“We know that over the last decade or so that more than half the economic growth has been captured by the top 1% of US citizens. That means the other 99% have seen their effective incomes go down. That is not a recipe for long term economic growth.”

I’m sorry - if half the gain went to just the top 1%, the remaining gain went to the rest of the people. Let me be clear, I am not suggesting this is ‘fair’ or that I’d advocate policy that would perpetuate it. I offer the following chart, which supports Obama’s intentions;

My issue, and reason for this post is that I believe precision is important. If all (100%) of the gains had gone to the top 1% of earners, then the rest of us would have remained level. It would take for the top X% to increase more than 100% of whatever gains occurred in a given period to impact the statistics so the rest of us would have lost ground. Please, Mr. Obama, the facts are bad enough, use them to your advantage. Learn to speak about the numbers and the numbers will speak for themselves.
(Note - click on the image above to read the entire article from the CPBB)

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: barack obama, economic growth, Finance, income, innumeracy, statistics