JoeTaxpayer

Some time ago, I read a book titled “Pop!: Why Bubbles Are Great For The Economy.” This is not a summary of that book, but I recommend it as it made for some interesting reading. Its premise was that bubbles leave in their wake some new infrastructure (telegraph lines or railroad tracks, as an example) or technology leap (as in the late 90’s ‘dot com’ boom leaving a huge amount of dark fiber and active bandwidth). Now, I put that book down wondering what the next bubble would bring, and perhaps I couldn’t see the forest through the trees. Regular readers know I’m excited about the prospects of alternative energy, specifically, solar energy. Sure enough, Harper’s recently ran an article titled “The next bubble: Priming the markets for tomorrow’s big crash.” In this article, Eric Janszen, the founder and president of iTulip, Inc. speculates that alternative energy may be the next bubble forming, and if his forecast is right, we have years ahead of us to take advantage of the opportunity this presents. This chart offers both historical numbers on Tech and Housing, as well as forecasts for the housing downturn and the Alternative energy bubble.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: Alternative Energy, electricity, Finance, gasoline, power, solar

In my recent posts where I share my excitement regarding the future of solar power, I talk about the potential cross over point where the cost of electricity, specifically from solar, is lower than the cost of gas. Well, a bit more googling, and I have some more numbers. From ‘Life after the oil crash‘, I find that a gallon of gasoline contains energy equal to about 37 KWH. With gas at about $3 per gallon right now, this is about 8.1 cents per KWH versus a US average cost per KWH of 10.69 cents. As we approach $4 gas, the cost of gasoline will exceed the cost of electricity BTU for BTU.
The latest prices I see for solar show about $6000-$8000 for a 1KW installation. Assuming a 5%/yr return, that’s about $400/yr. If the system is running full power for 2000 hours per year, we are at a 20 cent per KWH cost for solar. Still more than what we’d pay our electric company, but prices are still falling. We may be a few years away, but the current oil crisis will only help the cause (for solar).

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: electricity, gasoline, power, solar