JoeTaxpayer

I’ve seen remarks across the blogosphere that the recent FDIC advertisements are a bad sign. I’m not convinced. I think there are many who have no idea how the FDIC protection works, what its limits are, and how to get more coverage. First, here is one of the ads they are running:

The important thing to understand is that non-retirement accounts are insured up to $100K. If you have more cash than this, you should consider splitting it up among more than one bank. In the case of a failure, you may have to wait some time to access your money, so even if you are below the limit, using 2 or 3 banks is a good idea. See the FDIC Website for more details.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: banks, failure, fdic, money, Retirement, retirement account

They say that when the shoeshine boy starts talking about stocks it’s a time to get out of the market. Last week, David Letterman offered his Top Ten List,

Top Ten Signs You Have a Bad Bank

1. Manager giggles whenever he says, “early withdrawal”
2. They made $2 million loan to the Hillary Clinton campaign
3. Most banks are backed by the FDIC; your bank is backed by KFC
4. Bank robbers leave with a sack of IOUs — that’s how bad things are, ladies and gentlemen
5. Loan officer will approve your mortgage only if you let him rub you
6. ATM looks suspiciously like a Ms. Pac-Man machine
7. Interest paid not in money, but in Saltines
8. They promise they’ll have your money if you come back after tonight’s Keno drawing
9. Instead of Andrew Jackson, their $20 bills have a picture of Tito Jackson
10. Teller asks, “How may I swindle you?”

Maybe this is the sign that we’ve reached the bottom in this crisis, I hope so.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: banks, david letterman, fdic, interest, loan, money, Mortgage, stocks, top ten list

I first wrote of this phenomenon last September in a post titled “Disappointing Returns“. In that post I cited data that reported that for the 20 years ended Dec. 31, 2006, the average stock fund investor earned a paltry 4.3 average annual compounded return compared to 11.8 percent for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. Wow, that’s abysmal. These investors would have fared better by staying in CDs during that time. Last month (the June issue) in Smart Money magazine, I found this telling graph;

What we find is that investors don’t buy and hold. Not by a long shot. They pour money in just at the market is reaching a top, and then, just as the market reaches a short term low, they panic, and sell their funds. Thus the title of my post today.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: Finance, Investing, smart money magazine, stock fund, stocks

I usually don’t post on Sunday, so this post is going to be a bit off topic, a few general thoughts. First, I’m happy to see readership growing over the past weeks,

as well as steadily over the past 6 months.

I’ve gotten many comments, most of which are positive, all of which are welcome.

Recently, I’ve started posting about the Money Merge Account, and my feelings regarding that product. Lest this blog turn into my soapbox for ranting, I’ve decided to commit to a steady pattern of posts on Mon/Wed/Fri as I’ve been maintaining, and when I have more to say regarding MMA, I will add an extra post on either a Tuesday or Thursday. Other than that, I am trying to vary post topics, so technical, limited interest topics affecting a tiny percent of taxpayers will not appear more than every few weeks. I think there’s a need to bring those topics up as obscure as they may be. As always, your input is welcome and appreciated. Questions, and/or topic suggestion are always welcome.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: interest, irs, mma, money, money merge account, soapbox, tax

Not much I can say about this one, a picture’s worth 1000 words….. enjoy the weekend!
Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: cartoon, JoeTaxpayer, Social Security

As I hear more people talk on this topic, I grow more hopeful that the pain we are feeling in our wallets at the gas pump will pave the way toward a better future.
In an interview with the former mayor of New York, Ed Koch, I heard him call for a “Manhattan Project” for alternative energy. Let’s hope other politicians share his view. Al Gore seems to be on a similar path, he calls for a ten year plan to produce 100% of our energy needs from renewable resources within the next 10 years. T Boone Pickens (whose site I added to my link list, right) also proposes a plan for renewable energy. His plan differs slightly from Gore’s in that he feels it would be faster to introduce the widespread use of natural gas powered vehicles as an interim step to the electric car.
In the end, I look forward to a world where our children breathe cleaner air and see a clearer sky. More to come.
Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: Al Gore, Alternative Energy, Ed Koch, electric car, energy, manhattan project, power, renewable energy, t boone pickens

From Innumeracy.com:
Innumeracy: A term meant to convey a person’s inability to make sense of the numbers that run their lives. Innumeracy was coined by cognitive scientist Douglas R Hofstadter in one of his Metamagical Thema columns for Scientific American in the early nineteen eighties. Later that decade mathematician John Allen Paulos published the book Innumeracy. In it he includes the notion of chance as well to that of numbers.

From “Money Merge Advantage“, an MMA agent’s blog:
“In FACT… The software alone could still beat the 2nd scenario (putting the $300 discretionary to the mortgage each month)… WITHOUT using that discretionary income AT ALL. Yes, SERIOUSLY!”

If you have no idea what Money Merge Accounts are, or what I am talking about, please see my Money Merge Links page for references and then read on. In the blog I reference, the example starts with $250K, 30 yr, 6.5% mortgage. Then we are told a bi-weekly will provide some $75,800 worth of interest savings. No problem there, a bi-weekly is like paying 8% higher than the required monthly payment, usually in the form of a 13th payment snuck in once a year. The examples then offer that $300 more each month will cut the mortgage down to 19 yrs 8 months, which I still follow. But then the blog writer claims that with no extra money, beyond the $300, MMA will cut the mortgage to 14 yrs 4 months! This is beyond the wildest claims I’ve seen so far, and completely beyond reason.

Lastly, came the quote above, suggesting that with no extra funds available, the HELOC shuffle alone can produce savings greater than a $300 monthly principal payment would achieve. This raises new and troubling questions. The couple in the example have a net income of $3800/mo. If their HELOC were 0%, and they borrowed this $3800 at the beginning of each month, and paid it back at month’s end, it would gain them just under $21 per month, nowhere near $300. And no HELOC offers a 0% interest rate. At best, the HELOC is a percent or two under the fixed rate mortgage. This is simple math, folks, and no “sophisticated algorithms” are going to change the fact that 1+1=2 or that the best one might squeeze out of their HELOC shuffle efforts is $20-$30 per month, certainly not $300.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: HELOC, income, innumeracy, interest, jferheart, mma, money merge account, Mortgage, saving, sophisticated algorithms, UFF

A couple weeks back in a post titled Money Merge Hyperbole, I discussed the Money Merge product offered by UFF, and focused on the fact that in their published example, it’s clear that the use of a HELOC doesn’t provide any incremental savings. A kind reader points out on his web site, My Debt Elimination Calculator, that HELOC can provide some savings depending on a number of factors. Among them, the time of the month that income comes in, when bills are due, and the relative differences in HELOC interest rate, mortgage rate, and checking account interest. I agree with this. I’m from the “numbers don’t lie” camp and Greg offers numbers to back up his comments on that post. In his examples, the HELOC system saves $2550 more than the prepaying method on a $100K mortgage. (This is for the more realistic example where the borrower doesn’t have the (unrealistic) extra $1000/mo, but a more reasonable amount which will reduce the mortgage to 24 years from 30. In this case, Greg’s software is capturing over $100/yr in extra savings by using the HELOC. I certainly can’t knock a system that beats what I saw on official MMA sites but only costs $30. Take a look through the link above.
One point I must concede is this: It’s easier to make a purchase (waste money) when it’s from cash in the bank than when you are taking that money as a HELOC withdrawal. Maybe that’s what the MMA people are trying to say, but that message is lost to me among all the hyperbole.

I will close with this question and thought. If UFF, with the chance to put their product in the best light, cannot provide an example with real numbers which shows any savings beyond that of the prepaying (which I can illustrate with a free spreadsheet) yet create this illusion of ’sophisticated algorithms’ taking millions of dollars to develop, how do they justify a $3500 price tag? On the flip side, you have been introduced to Greg, (whom I just met via my blog) a Computer Scientist who was able to write code providing a solution that actually impressed me looking at his example. I’m sure this debate isn’t over.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: debt elimination calculator, free spreadsheet, HELOC, interest, jferheart, mma, money, Mortgage, Savings, sophisticated algorithms, spreadsheet, UFF

I continue to be amused by the debate over whether the ‘Debt Snowball‘ that Dave Ramsey suggests is the best method for fast debt reduction. I wrote about this some time ago on my Feature Web Site, and got quite a bit of email telling me how I ignored the emotional side. They quoted Dave Ramsey, “personal finance is 20% head knowledge, 80% behavior”.
Today I came across the web site “Consumerism Commentary”, which had a nice spin on paying the highest interest debts first (as I suggest), but calling this method “The Debt Avalanche“. Sounds good to me. Nice article.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: dave ramsey, debt, debt snowball, Finance, interest, irs, Personal Finance

I recently read a post “Why I love Roth IRAs” in which the author ignores much of the math going in and coming out. Now, I love Roths myself, but only when used to take most advantage of the tax rates involved. Let me explain. From my feature article earlier this year titled “Can you save too much, pre-tax?” we see that a couple with $447,500 in their 401(k) or Traditional, Pre-Tax IRA, can take withdrawals and remain in the 0% bracket. This is due to the combination of standard deductions and exemptions. The next $401,250 will support withdrawals at the 10% rate.
If you have a defined benefit pension (a traditional pension) the numbers certainly will shift, and you need to take this income into account. Pensions are getting more scarce and those who frequently changed jobs are likely to have never vested into any one plan.
So, now I’ll ask, what percent of retirees are likely to have saved this sum, a total $848,750 from the numbers above? I cite an article from AARP titled 2004-05 Boomers which offers a forecast. One chart in this report offers that for those born in 1956-65, their mean (this means average, important distinction from median, middle) wealth is forecast to be $839K. But reading on, we find that after subtracting non-retirement wealth and present value of Social Security benefits, we are looking at a retirement account balance of just $140K. It turns out the 4th quintile (this is the second 20% from the top) is forecast to have $906K, this scales to about $151K in retirement accounts. Even the top quintile (top 20%) will average $2028K total wealth, with maybe $350K-$400K in retirement accounts. So it’s only the upper portion of that group (in addition to those with fat traditional pensions) that need to consider the Roth while working. For the rest of us, we will likely be in the 10% or if fortunate, the 15% bracket upon retiring.
I’ll close with this thought - each family has their own set of numbers. This is why if you write in to a web site or magazine and ask “Is Roth good for me?”, it’s impossible to answer without knowing many details. We know more the closer you are to retirement, but only have a series of clues the further away you are. Another blog “The Finance Buff” offers a view similar to mine. I remain surprised at how many wave the Roth flag without some level of analysis. For those who have access to a Roth 401(k) and Roth IRA, it would be a shame to load those up and find that they missed out on the tax savings that pretax savings could have provided.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: 401(k), Finance, income, IRA, Retirement, retirement account, roth ira, saving, Savings, Social Security, tax, tax rates, traditional pension, wealth