JoeTaxpayer

From Innumeracy.com:
Innumeracy: A term meant to convey a person’s inability to make sense of the numbers that run their lives. Innumeracy was coined by cognitive scientist Douglas R Hofstadter in one of his Metamagical Thema columns for Scientific American in the early nineteen eighties. Later that decade mathematician John Allen Paulos published the book Innumeracy. In it he includes the notion of chance as well to that of numbers.

From “Money Merge Advantage“, an MMA agent’s blog:
“In FACT… The software alone could still beat the 2nd scenario (putting the $300 discretionary to the mortgage each month)… WITHOUT using that discretionary income AT ALL. Yes, SERIOUSLY!”

If you have no idea what Money Merge Accounts are, or what I am talking about, please see my Money Merge Links page for references and then read on. In the blog I reference, the example starts with $250K, 30 yr, 6.5% mortgage. Then we are told a bi-weekly will provide some $75,800 worth of interest savings. No problem there, a bi-weekly is like paying 8% higher than the required monthly payment, usually in the form of a 13th payment snuck in once a year. The examples then offer that $300 more each month will cut the mortgage down to 19 yrs 8 months, which I still follow. But then the blog writer claims that with no extra money, beyond the $300, MMA will cut the mortgage to 14 yrs 4 months! This is beyond the wildest claims I’ve seen so far, and completely beyond reason.

Lastly, came the quote above, suggesting that with no extra funds available, the HELOC shuffle alone can produce savings greater than a $300 monthly principal payment would achieve. This raises new and troubling questions. The couple in the example have a net income of $3800/mo. If their HELOC were 0%, and they borrowed this $3800 at the beginning of each month, and paid it back at month’s end, it would gain them just under $21 per month, nowhere near $300. And no HELOC offers a 0% interest rate. At best, the HELOC is a percent or two under the fixed rate mortgage. This is simple math, folks, and no “sophisticated algorithms” are going to change the fact that 1+1=2 or that the best one might squeeze out of their HELOC shuffle efforts is $20-$30 per month, certainly not $300.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: HELOC, income, innumeracy, interest, mma, money merge account, Mortgage, saving, sophisticated algorithms, UFF

A couple weeks back in a post titled Money Merge Hyperbole, I discussed the Money Merge product offered by UFF, and focused on the fact that in their published example, it’s clear that the use of a HELOC doesn’t provide any incremental savings. A kind reader points out on his web site, My Debt Elimination Calculator, that HELOC can provide some savings depending on a number of factors. Among them, the time of the month that income comes in, when bills are due, and the relative differences in HELOC interest rate, mortgage rate, and checking account interest. I agree with this. I’m from the “numbers don’t lie” camp and Greg offers numbers to back up his comments on that post. In his examples, the HELOC system saves $2550 more than the prepaying method on a $100K mortgage. (This is for the more realistic example where the borrower doesn’t have the (unrealistic) extra $1000/mo, but a more reasonable amount which will reduce the mortgage to 24 years from 30. In this case, Greg’s software is capturing over $100/yr in extra savings by using the HELOC. I certainly can’t knock a system that beats what I saw on official MMA sites but only costs $30. Take a look through the link above.
One point I must concede is this: It’s easier to make a purchase (waste money) when it’s from cash in the bank than when you are taking that money as a HELOC withdrawal. Maybe that’s what the MMA people are trying to say, but that message is lost to me among all the hyperbole.

I will close with this question and thought. If UFF, with the chance to put their product in the best light, cannot provide an example with real numbers which shows any savings beyond that of the prepaying (which I can illustrate with a free spreadsheet) yet create this illusion of ’sophisticated algorithms’ taking millions of dollars to develop, how do they justify a $3500 price tag? On the flip side, you have been introduced to Greg, (whom I just met via my blog) a Computer Scientist who was able to write code providing a solution that actually impressed me looking at his example. I’m sure this debate isn’t over.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: debt elimination calculator, free spreadsheet, HELOC, interest, mma, money, Mortgage, Savings, sophisticated algorithms, spreadsheet, UFF

In a post titled “Money Merge Account Evolution” we are subject to hyperbole, but no numbers. No proof. The latest version of MMA™ claims that if one has a mortgage along with ten other debts, they somehow need to consider 3 million possibilities before paying a dollar to any of these debts. Wow! Did he say 3 million? Is my rule “pay the highest interest rate credit card first, until it’s paid off” too simple? Should I spend even a millisecond deciding between paying my 18% credit card or prepaying my 5% mortgage? And do I really need software to help make that decision?
To be clear, I don’t suggest that MMA™ is a scam. It certainly is not. It does exactly what it claim it will do. It also lags the math that a simple spreadsheet can offer. A beautiful site called “Discover Money Merge” offers an example, one that spans the just over 10 years that MMA™ will take to retire a 30 year mortgage. Please view their example, I won’t copy their image to avoid any copyright issues. Now look at the year end numbers from my simple spreadsheet (this is for a 30yr, fixed, 6% loan. Their assumption and mine is an extra $1000/mo is available to pay the mortgage.)

Now compare this to the example linked to above. My spreadsheet - total interest paid, $67408.24, their example, $70,428.19. Where is the savings? Why didn’t the use of the HELOC they recommend along with the extra risk of borrowing funds short term at a higher rate provide any savings at all? If you are completely new to this topic please see the link list above for more details. More to come, I’m sure. If you’d like a copy of the full spreadsheet, please submit a comment with your email address and I’ll send it along.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: 30 year mortgage, Credit, HELOC, interest, jubilee project, loan, mma, money, money merge account, money merge account evolution, Mortgage, spreadsheet

I’ve gone on in many posts about the subprime mess. Pages and pages along with multiple links. But Randy Glasbergen managed to summarize in one insightful cartoon the source of our crisis;

Note: The above is from “Today’s Cartoon by Randy Glasbergen”, displayed with special permission. For many more cartoons, please visit Randy’s site at www.glasbergen.com
While there, you are invited to support his site by visiting his Cartoon Gift Shop at http://www.cafeshops.com/glasbergen for mugs, t-shirts, calendars, framed prints and other fun products featuring cartoons from his website. Me, I have a day job, and rely on the kindness of professional cartoonists to provide my Saturday material.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: calendars, cartoon, lend, mma, mugs, prints, professional cartoonists, randy glasbergen, subprime

The debate continues about how the subprime mess occurred. Let me tell you how it would not have occurred:

• Maximum Loan to value: 80% any higher requires PMI (Private Mortgage Insurance)
• Debt ratio permitted: 28/36 - This means that one’s mortgage payment and property tax cannot exceed 28% of one’s gross monthly income and all one’s monthly debt burden cannot exceed 36%.
• Income must be verified, i.e. ‘no doc’ loans not allowed.
• ARMs must be qualified at the maximum adjusted payment 3 years hence. This would insure that a year or two of rising rates would not be an economic time bomb.
• All documentation must follow the loan, no matter how it’s sold or repackaged

Would these rules eliminate foreclosures? Hardly. People still lose their jobs, and if unable to find work soon may be unable to make payments. People get sick and are unable to return to work, their disability pay not adequate enough to pay the mortgage. The rules above were broken, and the subprime mess resulted. Follow the rules above and it would take a 20% decline in prices for the lender’s capital to be at risk. With the permitted debt ratio above, a family earning $60,000 can pay $1400/mo toward mortgage and property tax. A $1200 payment can support a $200,000 loan at 6%, 30yr fixed. 20% down, and this results in a $250,000 home. Now, the median price of a home is $206,200 per the latest CNNMoney report, down from $219,300 in the prior quarter. Seems reasonable to me.

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: Business, Financial Services, Home, loan, Money Management, Mortgage, Personal Finance, United States

Earlier this month, I mentioned the Money Merge Account program on my feature site, and, as frequently happens, I find a magazine article coming to a similar conclusion.

The May issue of Kiplinger’s Personal Finance magazine has a brief article titled “Don’t fall for this mortgage pitch.” It’s a pretty brief article which again questions whether even prepaying at all is a good idea, but concludes with this punchline; “Salespeople challenge whether you’ll follow through on your own - as if spending $3500 for software will ensure that you’ll use it. Tell that to couch potatoes whose high-end exercise equipment gathers dust.” Amen to that.

I’ve also added links to highly trafficked discussions regarding this topic, and also written a stand-alone page comparing one MMA agent’s example to my own approach using a spreadsheet. I don’t know what surprises me more, that the shortcoming of such systems is so obvious, or that people are so desperate they’ll pay $3500 for something they can do with a free spreadsheet. I am happy to send a copy of my MMA spreadsheet to anyone that requests it.

(updated 5/4 - I added the link to the article above as the May issue of Kiplinger is now accessible on the web.)

Joe

written by JOE \\ tags: bi-weekly mortgage, Finance, foreclosure, Investing, money, money merge account, Mortgage, subprime

My March feature article discusses Money Merge Accounts. This system came to my attention a few months back in the form of a question on a usenet newsgroup. Since then, I’ve gotten as much information as I’ve been able to uncover and am staying with my gut reaction, that if one has the money and desire to pay their mortgage off early, they would be best off doing it on their own. I’ve also spent some time and created an MMA spreadsheet which will let you enter your own number and decide for yourself. Add a comment to request a copy. If it helps you save $3500, please donate $35 to your favorite charity in my name.

In other feature articles, I’ve discussed Bi-Weekly Mortgages, and the general topic of pre-paying one’s mortgage. The larger message here is that there are many approaches to take, but whatever you choose to do needs to be in the larger context of the rest of your financial situation.

Note: I’ve added a page on the sidebar with links to sites that discuss MMA in greater detail.

JOE

written by JOE \\ tags: dave ramsey, Finance, foreclosure, fraud, Investing, money, Mortgage, scam, subprime

This month’s Consumer Reports has an article “Your mortgage, It rarely pays to prepay“. They think it doesn’t, suggesting that since the stock market (measured by the S&P) has averaged 10% per year over the last 20 years, that it would make financial sense to choose investing in the stock market over pre-paying your mortgage. On one hand, there’s a neat logic to this. But, as I posted in my blog article Disappointing Results, we see that despite the 11.8% return of the S&P cited by the study, the average equity fund investor only saw a return of 4.3%. In that case, CR might rethink their numbers and their blanket statements offering what may be unsound financial advice.

Whatever you decide, the decision has to be based on your individual situation, your risk tolerance, and investing style.

JOE

written by JOE \\ tags: Finance, foreclosure, mma, Mortgage, mortgage acceleration, pre-pay, Real Estate, sub-prime loans

I’ve finished up another article for my main site, this month titled BiWeekly Mortgages. I’ll give you the punchline here. I have no objection to paying one’s mortgage down faster if the rest of their investments and debts are in order. Why pay down a 6% or 7% mortgage faster when you owe money on a 15% credit card?
What I do object to is paying a third party or your bank an extra fee plus monthly service charges when you can do this your self. I mention other mortgage acceleration programs such as Money Merge Accounts, which I’m still researching and will discuss here or on the main site in the near future.
JOE

written by JOE

A short sale of one’s home is different than we use the term ’short sale’ when referring to stocks. When you sell a stock short, you sell a stock you do not own, and hope it goes down so you buy it back at a lower cost.

A short sale of a house is when the sale price is not enough to cover the mortgage balance and the bank just accepts the sale price forgiving the balance owed. I wrote back in November that the unfortunate seller still had another issue. He had to pay tax on the forgiven amount. Now, thanks to the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007, there is a three year exclusion for this situation, and no tax is due.
JOE

written by JOE \\ tags: Finance, foreclosure, Investing, money, Mortgage, subprime